Rosh Hahannah 5774

Tonight marks the beginning of the 10 Days of Awe, as we welcome the New Year. Although this is a very serious time,  it's also an opportunity to celebrate and have a little fun.

One enduring tradition is dipping apples in honey; the apple represents the world, the honey represents sweetness. Typically, apple slices and a bowl of honey are passed around; everyone takes a slice, takes a dunk, recites a prayer and takes a bite.

And then there's this:

Cavalcade of Risk #191: Death by Shower edition

Julie Ferguson hosts this week's clean - but potentially deadly - roundup of risk-related bloggetry.

Bring a fresh towel.

NB: We've still got some Fall hosting slots available - just email us to claim yours!

Obamacare - Sitting on the Sidelines

HHS is spending $700 million of YOUR money to teach you something your parents did not. In

an effort to save Obamacare the government is hoping to convince young invincible's it is time to grow up, act like an adult and assume responsibility for your actions.

people like Kay Lamberti, age 29, a former nursing assistant now working a temp job in Providence, R.I., aren't cheering for the health exchanges just yet. Ms. Lamberti has gone for five years without health insurance and doesn't plan on getting it until she gets a higher paying job.

"It's not in the budget," says Lamberti. "I'm pretty healthy at the moment and I know things could happen, having had worked in the healthcare field, but I can't afford it based on that chance."

Christian Science Monitor

Rational decision (in her mind). Why buy something you don't need? Health insurance isn't sexy like the iPhone 5.

"The fear in the Obama administration is you're going to get the sick people signing up and the nonsick not signing up and that would be a disaster. The insurance pools won't work," 

A failure in the making?

You mean like PCIP?

Officials expect that if 7 million uninsured enroll in the marketplaces this year, 2 million to 2.5 million of those need to be young adults in order to make the insurance rates work.

Roughly 30% of Obamacare enrollee's need to be young, healthy people.

Even if they hit those numbers, I doubt that will be enough to make it work.

Health insurance carriers know that 20% of insureds generate about 80% of large claims. If Obamacare is to work they probably need something like 5 million healthy people to sign up if they truly do get 7 million enrolled overall.

Yeah, this is going to be interesting.

The Promise of Obamacare

About that Union label...

Back in the Spring, we noted that "some unions leaders have grown frustrated and angry about what they say are unexpected consequences of the [ObamaTax]."

Unexpected. Heh.

Fast forward a few months, and we learn that this anger and frustration has brought forth this result:

"[T]he 40,000 members of the International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILWU) announced that they have formally ended their association with the AFL-CIO, one of the nation's largest private sector unions. The Longshoremen cited Obamacare" as one of the two primary rationales (the other being immigration "reform" which, perhaps not coincidentally, will heavily impact the train-wreck, as well).

Never say die, though, exclaims HHS Secretary Shecantbeserious, and out come the big guns:

"[A]ccording to a report from InsideHealthPolicy, the Obama administration is considering offering insurance subsidies—intended for the uninsured—to labor union members who already have employer-sponsored coverage."

As the indispensable Avik Roy points out, folks covered under their employer's group plan aren't eligible for subsidies (although I would add that, technically, no one in states with Federally-run Exchanges are, either, but that hasn't stopped Ms Kathleen from handing them out willy-nilly).

The upshot is that funds that were earmarked for those previously unemployed will now be diverted to the more favored constituency (union members). Seems fair, no?

And it what is certainly "coincidental," grocery behemoth Krogers is following the UPS route [ed: very funny] and cutting off health bennies to its employees' spouses. But remember, "if you like your plan, you can keep your plan."

Or not.

HHS wants you to meet Lupita

 
 [In case you missed it, HHS also wants you to meet Howard]

Lupita and her nine year old daughter are uninsured. She works at a dental office as a dental assistant. She scrapes by every month trying to earn a few extra dollars by staying late just to make sure she and her daughter "have enough" at the end of the month. According to her story over at hhs.gov, she is really looking forward to the value Obamacare will bring to she and her daughter.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the average income for a dental assistant is $33,470. Assuming she is making this amount, the cost for her to purchase insurance through the marketplace Exchange would equate to 5.41% of her income or $2,294 per year. While that will clearly be less than the full premium, for Lupita to make up the $191 of monthly income she will have to pick up an additional 140+ hours of work per year just to come close to breakeven.

There is an alternative: continue to go bare and only have to pay a tax; I mean "shared responsibility payment" of roughly $240.

Interesting Life Underwriting news

Little did I realize when I recently posted about a client that I was on the bleeding edge of a potential revolution in life insurance underwriting. But that seems to be the case, as "new research by Timetric [shows that] three key technological developments have had a substantial impact on life insurance underwriting: automation, social media and big data."

[ed: gotta love "Big Data." Brent Spiner must be jealous]

Two items caught my eye:

First, that social media seems to be playing a larger role in detecting insurance fraud (we tend to see this more in the disability and workers comp fields, of course). But it strikes me as a little creepy that underwriters access FaceBook, Twitter and the like as part of their process. On the one hand, this makes sense: you checked "non-smoker," but there you are, tagged at a party, with a joint or a Marlboro. On the other hand, it seems to me that this comes awfully close to cyber-stalking. One supposes that the message is to be careful regarding your on-line presence.

The second is the idea of "Big Data." As we've seen from the recent NSA scandal(s), the idea that you have any real data privacy is quaint. Unlike Facebook posts, though, there's little you can do to control what's in your "file." And of course, to the extent that the privacy notice you signed allows, most of that info is legally accessible by the folks who are, after all, potentially on the hook for major dollars.

Brave new world, indeed.